Strategic Frame · Options
Build / Buy / Partner / Skip — and how it cashes out
Exhibit · Options inventory
Eight options ranked by speed and build-vs-buy — three are no-regret "fast builds," two are decisive "buys"
| Option | Build / Buy / Partner / Skip | Speed | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acquire DPP software tuck-in | Buy | Fast | Beat the regulatory clock; own a category before incumbents converge. |
| Build atma.io vertical analytics (apparel) | Build | Fast | Highest customer pull; lighthouse with adidas/Inditex. |
| Partner with hyperscaler for AI compute | Partner | Fast | Don't compete on infra; let Azure/AWS carry weight. |
| JV with luxury group on anti-counterfeit | Partner | Careful | Validate willingness-to-pay before scale-out. |
| Build pricing AI in core Materials Group | Build | Fast | 80–120 bps margin lift = $70–100M EBITDA. Pure ROI. |
| Acquire connected-packaging data startup | Buy | Careful | Decide after H2 pilots prove unit economics. |
| Divest non-core specialty adhesives | Sell | Careful | Free up $200–400M and management bandwidth. |
| In-house RFID silicon | Skip | Careful | Capital-intensive; Impinj partnership is sufficient. |
Team analysis; classification reflects the POV's H1/H2/H3 prioritization.
Exhibit · FY27 revenue sensitivity ($B) · Walmart ramp speed × HVC mix
Even at 50% Walmart ramp and 50% HVC mix, AVY reaches $9.6B FY27 — the asymmetry is in the upper-right cell.
| Walmart 25% | Walmart 50% | Walmart 75% | Walmart 100% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HVC 45% | $9.1B | $9.3B | $9.5B | $9.8B |
| HVC 50% | $9.3B | $9.6B | $9.9B | $10.2B |
| HVC 55% | $9.5B | $9.9B | $10.3B | $10.6B |
| HVC 60% | $9.7B | $10.2B | $10.6B | $11.0B |
Illustrative sensitivity; FY27 revenue under combinations of Walmart-ramp speed (% of plan) and HVC mix.
Exhibit · Risk heatmap
Walmart ramp slippage and EU DPP drift are the two risks that both rate high on likelihood × impact
Y = impact (1–5); X = likelihood (1–5). Bubble color by category.