JOURNEY · CEO / Strategy Strategy refresh
Step 5 / 5 · 3-horizon view
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Cockpit › 3-Horizon View
Today Growth EBITDA Profit External KG Flows Arch Ask KB Copilots How it works
External signals · impact on AVY
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Strategic Frame

Three horizons of value creation

A McKinsey 3-horizon view of AVY — bets, KPIs, and timing across protect / build / seed
Exhibit · 3-horizon allocation

Revenue today is concentrated in Horizon 1; the platform thesis requires explicit investment behind H2 and H3

0–24 months

Horizon 1 · Protect & extend the core

  • Materials mix-shift to HVC (specialty, sustainable)
  • Pricing AI to close 80–120 bps of leakage
  • Plant AI: predictive maintenance + CV-QC to lift OEE 800–1,400 bps
  • $60M restructuring savings landed in P&L
Op margin
14.5 % from 13.2
FCF conversion
100 % from 92
12–48 months

Horizon 2 · Build emerging platforms

  • Intelligent Labels Walmart ramp to $300M+ ARR
  • atma.io from 28B → 75–100B items; convert 15–20% to subscriptions
  • DPPaaS expansion beyond Burton into apparel, footwear, EV battery
  • Connected packaging pilots with 5+ Tier-1 CMOs
Recurring digital revenue
12 % from 4
Items on atma.io
85 B from 28
36+ months

Horizon 3 · Create new options

  • Product Intelligence Network — 'Bloomberg for physical products' data product
  • Sustainability intelligence services (carbon scoring, supplier risk)
  • Direct-to-consumer scan-to-engage marketing channel
  • Anti-counterfeit verification as a paid service (luxury, pharma)
Data products ARR
180 $M from 0
EV/EBITDA
17 x from 13
Horizon shares from current revenue base; KPI goals are aspirational 2028 targets.
Exhibit · Build / Buy / Partner / Skip

Six "fast" moves carry most of the H2 ramp — two long-dated bets are best left to careful validation

Fast
Careful
Build / Buy
Acquire DPP software tuck-in · Buy
Beat the regulatory clock; own a category before incumbents converge.
Build atma.io vertical analytics (apparel) · Build
Highest customer pull; lighthouse with adidas/Inditex.
Build pricing AI in core Materials Group · Build
80–120 bps margin lift = $70–100M EBITDA. Pure ROI.
Acquire connected-packaging data startup · Buy
Decide after H2 pilots prove unit economics.
Partner / Skip
Partner with hyperscaler for AI compute · Partner
Don't compete on infra; let Azure/AWS carry weight.
JV with luxury group on anti-counterfeit · Partner
Validate willingness-to-pay before scale-out.
Divest non-core specialty adhesives · Sell
Free up $200–400M and management bandwidth.
In-house RFID silicon · Skip
Capital-intensive; Impinj partnership is sufficient.
Strategic-options framework; classification is the team's POV. Open full options & sensitivity →
Avery Dennison · Executive Intelligence Cockpit · Illustrative · public 2024/25 disclosures.